2006 Predictions

Since I've made a few valid predictions about the web, I thought I'd take a stab at 2006...

1. Location-based mobile services will gain a foothold
I think something along the lines of Vindago for mobiles will launch in the UK

2. Yet another I-Should-Have-Thought-Of-That service will be bought by Yahoo or Google
If I knew what it was, I'd launch it. But just like Flickr and del.icio.us are so obvious after the fact, I think some enterprising mind will come up with a golden idea in 2006.

3. EBay does something big.
EBay expands in some way, into other services or merging with another company.

4. PS3 puts XBox360 to shame
PS3 will win the console wars, partly due to XBox not cracking Japan. PS3 online service will also outshine XBox-live

5. TV production companies start finally understand the value of putting episodes online
In part, driven by iPod video, television shows will start to appear online (legally). Some will continue to be free, while others will appear on services like iTunes in the pay-per-episode model.

6. VidCasts will not become successful
Hype will spread about the video equivalent of podcasts, but lacking the production value of professional productions, the audience for homegrown vidcasts will be limited. Eventually some cable community production type 'channel'-- local production studio -- will appear, but maybe not in 2006.

7. Encyclopedia Britannica and/or Encarta to adopt Wikipedia model
Given the negative publicity Wikipedia has been attracting due to its lack of an expert editorial process, a major encyclopedia will sieze the opportunity to compete and overtake it.

8. Episodic games finally released by a major publisher
A games publisher will realise the potential of episodic games for the PSP or NintendoDS. Players will subscribe to the game and receive new levels to play on a monthy basis.

9. Affordable terabyte hard drive hits the market
Perhaps late 2006, a terabyte hard drive hits the market for under US$400

10. Space time capsule launched with a digital snapshot of the internet
This is more a wish than a prediction, not likely to happen but maybe the meme will spread. I'd like to see the internet archive and Nasa team up to launch a digital time capsule to the moon. As part of this, I'd like to see the digital equivalent of Carl Sagan's Pioneer Plaque. Rationale being -- if an alien civilisation discovers the time capsule on the moon long after mankind has come and gone, they will likely have the technology to figure out how to boot a hard drive. They just need some kind of non-digital README.