2006 Predictions - Redux
It's time to look at the predictions I made at the end of 2005 and see which I got right and which I got wrong:
1. Location-based mobile services will gain a foothold
Wrong. At least in terms of what I had in mind -- people regularly using their mobiles to find nearby services.
2. Yet another I-Should-Have-Thought-Of-That service will be bought by Yahoo or Google
Right. One word - YouTube.
3. EBay does something big.
Wrong. They haven't done anything groundbreaking.
4. PS3 puts XBox360 to shame
Wrong. On two counts. First, Sony bungled the launch and marketing. Second, I completely ignored the Wii -- and that was the real story this year.
5. TV production companies start to finally understand the value of putting episodes online
Right. For example, you can watch the full episodes of Heroes online. Maybe they've finally realised that an online buzz improves overall sales, and opens up overseas markets for syndication.
6. VidCasts will not become successful
Yes and no. You could argue that the webcam vlogs found on YouTube are VidCasts. And there are a few cult-hits like Ask-A-Ninja -- but I'd still argue that VidCasts have not gone mainstream yet.
7. Encyclopedia Britannica and/or Encarta to adopt Wikipedia model
Wrong. I over-estimated the negative publicity around Wikipedia at the time. However, I was right about the gap in the market -- which the wikipedia co-founder, Larry Sanger, is hoping to fill by launching a competitor, the poorly named: Citizendium
8. Episodic games finally released by a major publisher
Right. SIN Episodes launched in May 2006.
9. Affordable terabyte hard drive hits the market
Right! The LACIE 300797U retails for $530, but is on sale for just over $440. I predicted $400 -- I'd say that's pretty much spot on.
10. Space time capsule launched with a digital snapshot of the internet
Right ... surprisingly, because this was sort of a joke. It wasn't a physical time capsule, but the Yahoo! Time Capsule ran from October to November and the data was beamed into space. I'd still like to see my idea of a physical internet archive stored on the moon come to fruition though.
OVERALL: 6/10 correct predictions
I'll post predictions for 2007 soon.
1. Location-based mobile services will gain a foothold
Wrong. At least in terms of what I had in mind -- people regularly using their mobiles to find nearby services.
2. Yet another I-Should-Have-Thought-Of-That service will be bought by Yahoo or Google
Right. One word - YouTube.
3. EBay does something big.
Wrong. They haven't done anything groundbreaking.
4. PS3 puts XBox360 to shame
Wrong. On two counts. First, Sony bungled the launch and marketing. Second, I completely ignored the Wii -- and that was the real story this year.
5. TV production companies start to finally understand the value of putting episodes online
Right. For example, you can watch the full episodes of Heroes online. Maybe they've finally realised that an online buzz improves overall sales, and opens up overseas markets for syndication.
6. VidCasts will not become successful
Yes and no. You could argue that the webcam vlogs found on YouTube are VidCasts. And there are a few cult-hits like Ask-A-Ninja -- but I'd still argue that VidCasts have not gone mainstream yet.
7. Encyclopedia Britannica and/or Encarta to adopt Wikipedia model
Wrong. I over-estimated the negative publicity around Wikipedia at the time. However, I was right about the gap in the market -- which the wikipedia co-founder, Larry Sanger, is hoping to fill by launching a competitor, the poorly named: Citizendium
8. Episodic games finally released by a major publisher
Right. SIN Episodes launched in May 2006.
9. Affordable terabyte hard drive hits the market
Right! The LACIE 300797U retails for $530, but is on sale for just over $440. I predicted $400 -- I'd say that's pretty much spot on.
10. Space time capsule launched with a digital snapshot of the internet
Right ... surprisingly, because this was sort of a joke. It wasn't a physical time capsule, but the Yahoo! Time Capsule ran from October to November and the data was beamed into space. I'd still like to see my idea of a physical internet archive stored on the moon come to fruition though.
OVERALL: 6/10 correct predictions
I'll post predictions for 2007 soon.
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